Britain is on course to becoming a '2nd tier' European country like Spain or Italy due to economic decline and a weak military that undermines its usefulness to allies, a professional has actually alerted.

Research professor Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has actually been paralysed by low investment, high tax and misdirected policies that could see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current growth rates.

The plain assessment weighed that succeeding government failures in regulation and attracting investment had actually triggered Britain to lose out on the 'industries of the future' courted by developed economies.

'Britain no longer has the commercial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,' he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society's latest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report assesses that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in terms of per capita earnings by 2030, and that the main European nation's military will quickly go beyond the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and equipment on the current trajectory.

'The problem is that as soon as we are reduced to a second tier middle power, it's going to be practically impossible to get back. Nations don't come back from this,' Dr Ibrahim told MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decrease unless we nip this in the bud and have bold leaders who are able to make the tough choices right now.'

People pass boarded up stores on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier reloads his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai uses a radio to speak to Archer crews from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery throughout a live fire variety on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the government's choice to increase defence costs to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but alerted much deeper, systemic issues threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a worldwide influential power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling back even second-tier European powers', he warned.

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'Not just is the U.K. anticipated to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but also a smaller sized army and one that is unable to sustain implementation at scale.'

This is of specific concern at a time of increased geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be amongst the leading forces in Europe's quick rearmament job.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine today, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to mount a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is a huge oversight on the part of subsequent federal governments, not just Starmer's problem, of stopping working to buy our military and essentially outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of supplying the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now has to base on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to actually lead European defence. But none of the European nations are.'

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low efficiency are nothing brand-new. But Britain is now likewise 'failing to change' to the Trump administration's jolt to the rules-based global order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The previous consultant to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the institutions once 'protected' by the U.S., Britain is responding by harming the last vestiges of its military may and financial power.

The U.K., he said, 'seems to be making increasingly costly gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has been the source of much scrutiny.

Negotiations in between the U.K. and Mauritius were started by the Tories in 2022, but a contract was revealed by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security believe thank alerted at the time that 'the move shows stressing strategic ineptitude in a world that the U.K. government refers to as being characterised by fantastic power competitors'.

Require the U.K. to supply reparations for its historical function in the servant trade were revived likewise in October in 2015, though Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth countries that reparations would not be on the program.

A Challenger 2 primary battle tank of the British forces during the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak during a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin evaluated that the U.K. seems to be acting against its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of danger.

'We understand soldiers and missiles but fail to fully conceive of the threat that having no option to China's supply chains might have on our capability to react to military hostility.'

He recommended a new security design to 'enhance the U.K.'s strategic dynamism' based upon a rethink of migratory policy and hazard assessment, access to unusual earth minerals in a market dominated by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and self-reliance by means of financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without instant policy modifications to reignite development, Britain will end up being a diminished power, reliant on stronger allies and susceptible to foreign coercion,' the Diplomacy writer stated.

'As international economic competitors heightens, the U.K. needs to choose whether to accept a strong growth program or resign itself to irreparable decrease.'

Britain's dedication to the concept of Net Zero may be laudable, however the pursuit will hinder development and odd tactical goals, he alerted.

'I am not stating that the environment is not essential. But we merely can not pay for to do this.

'We are a nation that has actually failed to purchase our economic, in our energy facilities. And we have significant resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, including using small modular reactors, might be an advantage for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we've stopped working to commercialise them and certainly that's going to take a significant quantity of time.'

Britain did introduce a new funding design for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists consisting of Labour politicians had actually insisted was key to finding the cash for costly plant-building tasks.

While Innovate UK, Britain's development company, has been heralded for its grants for small energy-producing companies at home, business owners have alerted a larger culture of 'risk hostility' in the U.K. suppresses investment.

In 2022, incomes for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file photo of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has consistently stopped working to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian risk', allowing the pattern of handled decrease.

But the revival of autocracies on the world phase risks further weakening the rules-based international order from which Britain 'advantages tremendously' as a globalised economy.

'The threat to this order ... has developed partially due to the fact that of the lack of a robust will to defend it, owing in part to ponder foreign attempts to subvert the recognition of the true lurking threat they posture.'

The Trump administration's alerting to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has gone some method towards waking Britain up to the seriousness of buying defence.

But Dr Ibrahim warned that this is insufficient. He urged a top-down reform of 'basically our entire state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the welfare state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are basically bodies that take up enormous amounts of funds and they'll simply keep growing significantly,' he informed MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget plan and it will really not make much of a damage. So all of this will require fundamental reform and will take a lot of courage from whomever is in power because it will make them out of favor.'

The report lays out suggestions in extreme tax reform, pro-growth immigration policies, and a restored focus on protecting Britain's role as a leader in modern markets, energy security, and worldwide trade.

Vladimir Putin talks with the governor of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky throughout their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File picture. Britain's economic stagnancy might see it soon end up being a 'second tier' partner

Boarded-up shops in Blackpool as more than 13,000 stores closed their doors for great in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe spend for its own defence has cast fresh light on the Old Continent's dire situation after years of slow development and decreased costs.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research evaluated at the end of in 2015 that Euro location economic performance has been 'controlled' because around 2018, illustrating 'complex challenges of energy dependence, making vulnerabilities, and moving worldwide trade characteristics'.

There remain extensive disparities in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has actually hit businesses hard and forced redundancies, while Spain has actually grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This remains vulnerable, however, with locals significantly agitated by the perceived pandering to foreign visitors as they are evaluated of affordable accommodation and trapped in low paying seasonal tasks.

The Henry Jackson Society is a diplomacy and nationwide security think thank based in the UK.

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